Outlook for Electric Vehicles

INSIGHTS
Various industry experts believe that 2025 is the official tipping point for the explosive growth of demand for electric vehicles.
The two factors most inhibiting the speed of the rise of electric vehicles is cost to manufacturers and the need for EV infrastructure, since electric vehicles are yet profitable.
China currently has the largest demand for electric vehicles (EV), and is poised to be the primary consumer for the next several decades, far ahead of all other major EV markets including United States, Norway, Germany, Japan.
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We have briefly outlined several articles detailing the global outlook for electric vehicles (EV). The global outlook for the EV market will be characterized by a decrease in manufacturing cost, an increase in demand-driving government policies, and establishment of cost-effective EV infrastructures in countries around the world — especially China.

1. Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018 from Bloomberg New Energy Finance
In 2018, over 2 million electric vehicles were sold. Considering that only a few thousand were sold in 2010, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) believes the market will continue to pick up speed. The firm believes yearly passenger sales will increase to 10 million by 2015, 28 million by 2030, and 56 million by 2040.

2. Making Electric Vehicles Profitable from McKinsey & Company
In this article, Mckinsey presents a list of the factors that have withheld EV demand, and why many companies do not profit from EV vehicles. It also outlines a clear map for EV profitability and growth, presenting 2025 as a tipping point. This is the year industry experts see cost trajectory, battery efficiency improvements, and indirect reduction of costs combining for a thriving market.

3. Global EV Outlook 2018: 3 Million and Counting from the International Energy Agency
This article provides a comprehensive overview of the EV market, and examines how charging infrastructure policies from governments are affecting global demand. It also lays out a series of scenarios for the EV market through 2030.
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4. The Global Electric Vehicle Market Outlook from Greentech Media
By examining the rollouts of charging infrastructures, Greentech media compares and contrasts global EV demand among various countries such as China and Norway and the USA. While Norway has the highest per capita level of EV owners, the market is clearly dominated by China.

5. Electric Vehicle Market Outlook — Segmentation by Electric Vehicle (EV) Battery Analysis, Charging Station Infrastructure Trends — Growth, Trends, and Forecast (2019–2024) from Mordor Intelligence

The global increase in demand for electric vehicles is primarily driven by government policy. This article reviews the top ten leading EV countries in vehicle adoptions and examines the variety of policies they have in place that will create demand for electric vehicles.

6. Driving into 2025: The Future of Electric Vehicles from JP Morgan
JP Morgan predicts that the next 10 years will bring more change in the automation industry than the two decades prior. This article explores the key date of 2025, sharing why automakers believe it is a tipping point for the electric vehicle industry. The firm believes that by 2025, sales of electric vehicles will rise to 7.7% of market share.

7. Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast and the Charging Infrastructure Required Through 2030 from the Edison Foundation
The Edison Electric Institute predicts that yearly sales of electric vehicles will surpass 3.5 million vehicles by 2030, and represent more than 20% of vehicle market share. This article discusses the significant investment in infrastructure that will be needed in order to support is demand.

8. The Future of Electric Vehicles in the U.S. from Energy Innovation
This article uncovers potential sources of failure or impeded growth for EV demand in the United States. External factors such as petroleum fuel prices, government policy support or lack thereof, and upfront purchase price are listed as significant decides of future market share.

9. Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with Projections to 2050 from the U.S. Energy Administration
In this article, the US EIA makes a strong argument for electricity use in transportation rising sharply after 2020. Projections for global EV demand through 2050 from battery electric vehicles (BEV) are explored in detail with several comparison charts.

Each of these articles highlight the EV global sales and manufacturing outlook with various time frames. Although some estimates are positive, and some conservative, most industry experts agree that this sector is poised for growth. The speed of that growth will be greatly affected by issues of profitability and infrastructure.
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