The countdown timer is ticking, the old price is crossed out in red, and the laptop you have wanted since July is suddenly "39% off". Black Friday falls on 27 November 2026, and the emails have already started. Before you tap buy, one question matters: 39% off what?
The short answer: Judge a deal against the lowest price the item sold for in the last 30 to 90 days, never against the struck-through "was" price. In the latest Which? price study, 83% of Black Friday deals were the same price or cheaper at another point in the year. A free price-history tool tells you the truth in about five minutes.
What the price records show
Which? tracked 175 home, tech and health products from eight big UK retailers for six months either side of the 2024 sale. Eight in ten were not at their best price during the four-week Black Friday window. On Black Friday itself, not one was at its cheapest of the year. Amazon's deals were matched or beaten 88% of the time, and were cheaper on another day in 63% of cases.
One 55-inch Samsung TV sold for £1,039 on Black Friday at AO, dropped to £999 the next day, and was cheaper than the Black Friday price on 134 days in the following six months, bottoming out at £759. Patience was worth £280.
The United States looks similar. Oxylabs tracked 61,172 products hourly across two large US marketplaces from August to Black Friday 2024. On one marketplace, 72% of Black Friday prices were not even the lowest of the previous week. Among products listed for at least 90 days, 60% carried a reference price that had not been charged regularly before the sale.
The "was" price trick, and the rules against it
The oldest move in retail is to raise the price in October and cut it in November. The previous Which? study found 14 deals whose "was" price had never been charged in the prior 12 months, plus a toothbrush "reduced" from £240 to £89 that had sat at £240 for exactly one day.
Regulators have noticed. In the EU, any discount announcement must show the lowest price charged in the previous 30 days, so the struck-through figure should be the recent low, not a forgotten launch price. In the US, the Federal Trade Commission's pricing guides say a former price must be the actual, bona fide price offered on a regular basis for a reasonably substantial period. An inflated price set up to enable a big reduction does not count.
The UK's Competition and Markets Authority made one mattress seller agree to use "was" prices only after enough sales at the higher price over a sufficient period, and to keep its countdown clocks honest. The CMA lists "Only 7 left" and "Offer ends in 02:50:56" among the urgency claims it watches. Wherever you shop, India included, a rule only helps if the seller follows it. The price history is your real protection.
When electronics discounts actually peak
Adobe's holiday forecast, published on 28 September 2026, expects US online discounts of up to 14% in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving, and 10 to 15% through December. The peaks land on different days for different gadgets.
| Category | Peak discount | Peak day |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 30% | Cyber Monday, 30 November |
| Computers | 23% | Cyber Monday |
| TVs | 23% | Black Friday, 27 November |
| Toys | 29% | Black Friday |
| Appliances | 18% | Black Friday |
Two caveats. These are US averages from one analytics firm, not promises about any single product. And this year's memory shortage has lifted laptop and SSD list prices, so a "discount" on a machine whose price rose in October can still sit above its summer price. Our guide to why RAM, SSD and laptop prices jumped explains which specs are affected.
The five-minute check
- Copy the exact model number. A TV one letter different can be a different panel with a different price history.
- Open a price history. The Keepa extension draws charts on Amazon's US, UK, German, Indian and six other stores. Which? points UK shoppers to PriceRunner and camelcamelcamel. For Amazon.in and Flipkart, Price History shows the lowest price ever and sends drop alerts.
- Write down the lowest price in the last 30 days and the last 90 days. Ignore the struck-through number entirely.
- Check the everyday price at two other retailers. If the "Black Friday price" matches what a rival charges all year, it is not a discount.
- Work out the real saving: recent low minus sale price, divided by the recent low.
- Check who sells and who ships the item, and the return window. A third-party seller with a seven-day return is a different offer from the same box sold by the store.
- Set a target-price alert and walk away if the deal misses it. Which? found most Black Friday prices are matched or beaten at other times of the year.
A worked example, hypothetical: a 55-inch TV is listed "was $899, now $549, save 39%". The chart shows it sold at $649 for most of October and touched $599 in September. Against the 30-day low, the real saving is $100, or 15%. Against the 90-day low it is $50, or 8%. Fair, but not 39% off, and an alert at $599 costs nothing.
Frequently asked questions
Is Cyber Monday better than Black Friday for tech?
For laptops and general electronics, Adobe expects the deepest US discounts on Cyber Monday. For TVs, Black Friday itself. For any specific product, the price history beats the calendar.
Can an AI shopping assistant do this check for me?
It can compare today's prices across stores quickly. A price-history chart is still the only way to tell a genuine "was" price from an inflated one, so that part stays with you. We looked at what shopping agents actually get right.
So, before 27 November: list the three gadgets you actually want, open their price charts this week, note the 30-day and 90-day lows, and set alerts. On the day, buy only what beats your number. And if the "deal" arrives as a text message with a link, read our guide to spotting a fake delivery text first.
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